Risk-assessment baseline packet. County FIPS 51127. Release 2026-10, data as of 2026-09-30.
Summary
Plan status as of 2026-09-30: Approved, expires 2027-08-07. Plan: PDC 15 & 19 Richmond-Crater Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 108426), approved 2022-08-08.
Update: FEMA tracker shows a plan in progress.
Since the plan was approved on 2022-08-08: 1 new hazard declaration (1 incident) and 40 NOAA Storm Events records; details under "What changed since your last plan".
Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Inland Flooding ($3,379,288 a year), Drought ($1,798,534) and Hurricane ($551,056).
The packet's tables are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); the summaries below follow the same order.
What the packet contains
Sections in FEMA checklist order; each heading names the review item its tables support. Full tables are in the downloads above.
Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a Hazard identification
16 of the 18 National Risk Index hazards apply here.
Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: avalanche and volcanic activity. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.
Highest expected annual loss (NRI, modeled): Inland Flooding, Drought and Hurricane.
Not covered by NRI (local data needed): dam failure (incl. upstream dams); levee failure; flash flood as its own subtype; ice jams; debris flows; erosion (riverine and coastal); land subsidence and sinkholes; expansive soils.
The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.
Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b Hazard location
- Coastal Flooding and Inland Flooding: the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.
- Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather: affects the whole county; national data give no location within it.
- Earthquake, Hurricane, Landslide, Tornado, Tsunami and Wildfire vary within the county; the packet lists the highest-rated census tracts for each.
Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c Hazard extent
Storm Events records for 13 of the 20 NOAA event-type groups mapped to the 18 hazards, with the scale, observed range and worst recorded event for each; the others say which local data are needed.
Worst recorded tornado, hail and thunderstorm wind (the three event types on record since the 1950s; the packet has every group):
- Hail: 1.75 in hail, 2000-05-19; same size also recorded on 1996-12-05, 1999-04-23
- Thunderstorm Wind: 50 kt (58 mph) estimated gust, Thunderstorm Wind, 2026-06-14; same speed and measurement basis also recorded on 2003-07-22, 2004-06-30, 2006-01-14, 2006-04-03, 2006-05-11, 2006-08-04, 2007-05-28, 2007-07-19, 2007-08-05, 2007-08-10, 2008-05-09, 2008-06-16, 2008-07-04, 2008-08-15, 2009-05-09, 2010-05-14, 2010-08-04, 2010-08-12, 2011-03-06, 2011-03-10, 2011-03-21, 2011-05-18, 2011-07-03, 2012-06-25, 2012-06-29, 2012-06-30, 2012-07-18, 2013-08-10, 2014-05-28, 2014-06-19, 2015-06-20, 2016-02-24, 2016-06-16, 2017-05-05, 2017-08-18, 2017-10-24, 2018-04-16, 2019-04-15, 2019-08-07, 2019-08-22, 2020-04-13, 2020-06-06, 2021-03-31, 2021-09-08, 2022-04-26, 2022-06-12, 2022-07-26, 2023-06-26, 2023-09-07, 2024-08-19, 2025-02-16, 2025-05-05, 2025-06-19, 2025-07-12, 2025-07-14, 2025-07-19, 2026-03-16, 2026-06-14
- Tornado: EF1 tornado, 2011-10-13, 9.24 mi within this county, 200 yd wide, $1,000,000 property; $0 crops (2011 dollars)
Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d Previous occurrences
Federal declarations for this area: 22 declarations covering 17 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet; each with type, dates and county Public Assistance dollars.
New since the last plan (approved 2022-08-08): EM-3631-VA.
3 statewide declarations listed separately.
Hazards with no Storm Events record and no federal declaration are stated as such (7 of 18).
Storm Events history: 252 records (notable ones in the PDF, all of them in the Excel file).
Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e Probability of future events
FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) for each hazard, with a descriptor from a scale defined in the packet.
- Highly likely: Coastal Flooding, Hail, Lightning and Strong Wind
- Likely: Heat Wave, Hurricane, Ice Storm, Inland Flooding, Landslide, Tornado and Winter Weather
- Possible: Cold Wave and Drought
Historical frequency by intensity band (tornado, hail, wind): 9 bands from Storm Events.
Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f Hazards that vary across jurisdictions
Range of census tract risk scores within the area for 16 of the 18 hazards (4 tracts; rated tracts only).
1 jurisdiction: plan clock, repeat-flood count, Public Assistance dollars and event records naming the place (starting figures from federal data).
Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b Vulnerability and potential impacts
The packet's table gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.
Storm Events damage since 2022-08-08: $42,750 in county-coded records (32 records); $503,000 reported for the zone (8 zone records). Data through 2026-06-30; nominal dollars.
Local data needed
To gather:
- Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
- A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
- Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
- Future assets
Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a Vulnerability (county context)
Population 22,940; building value $4,600,620,385 and agriculture value $6,603,245 (total, not at risk).
National Risk Index rating Very Low; social vulnerability Very Low; community resilience Very High.
Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c Repetitive loss properties
Repetitive-loss properties, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2): 2 repetitive loss, 0 severe repetitive loss. NFIP insurance definition: 3 and 0.
Mitigated 0; insured 0; NFIP data as of 2026-08-02. Counts by occupancy group and for each jurisdiction are in the packet.