Risk-assessment baseline packet. Independent city FIPS 51678. Release 2026-10, data as of 2026-09-30.
Summary
Plan status as of 2026-09-30: Plan 111195 approved 2026-06-02, pending adoption here; not yet eligible. Plan: PDC 06 Central Shenandoah Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 111195), pending adoption here, approved 2026-06-02 by FEMA; not yet adopted here.
Update: FEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoption.
Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Inland Flooding ($1,326,755 a year), Earthquake ($183,770) and Lightning ($161,329).
The packet's tables are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); the summaries below follow the same order.
Plan clock
Plan 111195 approved 2026-06-02, pending adoption here; not yet eligible
- Plan:
- PDC 06 Central Shenandoah Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 111195), pending adoption here
- Approved:
- 2026-06-02 by FEMA; not yet adopted here
- Expires:
- 2031-06-01 once adopted
- Update underway:
- FEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoption
Not yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
Not yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
What the packet contains
Sections in FEMA checklist order; each heading names the review item its tables support. Full tables are in the downloads above.
Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a Hazard identification
14 of the 18 National Risk Index hazards apply here.
Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: avalanche, coastal flooding, tsunami and volcanic activity. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.
Highest expected annual loss (NRI, modeled): Inland Flooding, Earthquake and Lightning.
Not covered by NRI (local data needed): dam failure (incl. upstream dams); levee failure; flash flood as its own subtype; ice jams; debris flows; erosion (riverine and coastal); land subsidence and sinkholes; expansive soils.
The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.
Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b Hazard location
- Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather: affects the whole county; national data give no location within it.
- Earthquake, Hurricane, Landslide, Tornado and Wildfire vary within the county; the packet lists the highest-rated census tracts for each.
- Inland Flooding: the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.
Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c Hazard extent
Storm Events records for 11 of the 20 NOAA event-type groups mapped to the 18 hazards, with the scale, observed range and worst recorded event for each; the others say which local data are needed.
Worst recorded tornado, hail and thunderstorm wind (the three event types on record since the 1950s; the packet has every group):
- Hail: 0.88 in hail, 2023-07-13; same size also recorded on 1998-06-16, 2007-06-11
- Thunderstorm Wind: 65 kt (75 mph) estimated gust, Thunderstorm Wind, 2012-06-29
Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d Previous occurrences
Federal declarations for this area: 14 declarations covering 11 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet; each with type, dates and county Public Assistance dollars.
Plan 111195 was approved by FEMA on 2026-06-02 but is not yet adopted here, so no since-plan counts are given.
3 statewide declarations listed separately.
Hazards with no Storm Events record and no federal declaration are stated as such (9 of 18).
Storm Events history: 194 records (notable ones in the PDF, all of them in the Excel file).
Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e Probability of future events
FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) for each hazard, with a descriptor from a scale defined in the packet.
- Highly likely: Hail, Lightning and Strong Wind
- Likely: Drought, Ice Storm, Inland Flooding and Winter Weather
- Possible: Cold Wave, Hurricane and Wildfire
- Unlikely: Landslide and Tornado
Historical frequency by intensity band (tornado, hail, wind): 9 bands from Storm Events.
Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f Hazards that vary across jurisdictions
Range of census tract risk scores within the area for 14 of the 18 hazards (2 tracts; rated tracts only).
1 jurisdiction: plan clock, repeat-flood count, Public Assistance dollars and event records naming the place (starting figures from federal data).
Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b Vulnerability and potential impacts
The packet's table gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.
Plan 111195 was approved by FEMA on 2026-06-02 but is not yet adopted here, so no since-plan counts are given.
Local data needed
To gather:
- Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
- A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
- Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
- Future assets
Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a Vulnerability (county context)
Population 7,320; building value $1,555,021,565 and agriculture value $0 (total, not at risk).
National Risk Index rating Very Low; social vulnerability Relatively High; community resilience Very High.
Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c Repetitive loss properties
Repetitive-loss properties, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2): 0 repetitive loss, 3 severe repetitive loss. NFIP insurance definition: 4 and 3.
Mitigated 0; insured 0; NFIP data as of 2026-08-02. Counts by occupancy group and for each jurisdiction are in the packet.